© NewsFutures
Yikes.
Still wrapping my head around this prediction market thing, but I think I'm getting it.
What are predictor markets?
A predictor market, such as newsfutures, allows individuals the opportunity to trade shares on the probability of certain outcomes - everything from NHL games, to election results, to financial markets.
How does it work?
You purchase and sell shares in an event based on your prediction of its likelihood. For example, if you are willing to buy a share for $85 that will return $100 if you're right and $0 if you're wrong, you are saying you are 85% certain of its probability.
This may explain what I have been doing wrong. I really screwed up the Red Wings/Blues prediction because I was betting in the opposite market (against the Blues winning rather than for the Red Wings) and bought high and sold low. What a dork.
Why would you do this?
The dollar value people put on an outcome gives you an idea of the probability of an event, and it has proven more accurate than polls or really any other measure. HP used this internally for predicting sales on printers, with success.
A market represents the free exchange of information. People make independent predictions without undue influence.
Min # of people to make a prediction market work?
About 12. Any fewer, resolve in a conference call.
How do you get it to work in a company?
Hire newsfutures (that's how they make money).
Incent with public recognition to the person who predicts most accurately.
How can this work at Four Seasons?
Viability of advertising campaigns, web site functionality, market predictions....
Hire newsfutures (that's how they make money).
Incent with public recognition to the person who predicts most accurately.
How can this work at Four Seasons?
Viability of advertising campaigns, web site functionality, market predictions....
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